A Stock-Market Crash of 50%+ Would Not Be a Surprise

After long eras of over-valuation, like the period we have been in since the late 1990s (with the notable exceptions of the lows after the 2000 and 2007 crashes), stocks have also often transitioned.

Why isn’t anyone talking about those facts?

Three reasons:

  • First, as mentioned, no one in the financial community likes to hear bad news or to be the bearer of bad news when it comes to stock prices. It’s bad for business.
  • Second, valuation is nearly useless as a market-timing indicator.
  • Third, yes, there is a (probably small) chance that it’s “different this time,” and all the historically predictive valuation measures are out-dated and no longer predictive.

The third reason is the one that everyone who is bullish about stocks these days is implicitly or explicitly relying on: “It’s different this time.”

Just so you know, every time there is a long bull market like the one we’ve had, people come up with lots of reasons to explain why it’s different this time.  (And understandably so! Everyone wants the bull market to continue, and no one wants to miss further gains.) They did that in the late 1920s. They did that in the late 1990s. They did that in 2007. Usually, however, it isn’t different this time, and normality reasserts itself with a vengeance.

Rest of the story at A Stock-Market Crash of 50%+ Would Not Be a Surprise — Or The Worst-Case Scenario | David Stockman’s Contra Corner

Class Warfare, American Style–Part II–Privatize, Deregulate, Outsource & Offshore

Here is an excellent article for Canadians to read. It applies in many ways to our slow economic growth and the loss of independent business start ups. Canada has far too little oversight on industries that strip mine forests, pollute rivers and lakes including the mining industries. A nuclear waste dump 1 mile from the Great Lakes is pure insanity.

Rcooley123's Blog

Privatizing, deregulating, outsourcing and offshoring of various functions have become major goals for conservative forces in America. They all serve to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of a small percentage of the populace at the expense of the rest while claiming to increase efficiency, lower costs and grow the economy. They all neglect the purposes for which the activities were made public or regulated to begin with. They cost real people good paying jobs, endangering the health and wellbeing of themselves and their families. Inequality in income and wealth is increasing as a result, along with a real drop in the opportunity for advancement by the vast majority of people in our society.

One area where privatization has seen a push in recent years is public education reform. Prisons have been another target for corporate takeover of government functions. Both provide major public services affecting society as a…

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